Italian “off-trade” wine market – “Sales trend analysis, before and after the pandemic”.
Outline:
- In the last 10 years, wine consumption is relatively stable
- Up to 2019, sales of quality wines grew, generic wines fell
- With the pandemic, wine sales kept increasing but the trend inverted, quality wine grew slower
- After the first lockdown wine sales continued to grow further
- 2020 “off-trade” wine sales overview
- Except for the first lockdown, 2020 confirmed the “premiumisation” of wine consumption
- Final remarks
In the last 10 years, wine consumption is relatively stable
- Total domestic consumption around 22 mln hl
- Per-capita consumption around 38 l/year
(2009 to 2019)
“off-trade” wine sales value grew
- “Off-trade” wine sales value grew +1.9%
- But volume decreased by -1.0%
(2014 to 2019)
Up to 2019, sales of quality wines grew, generic wines fell
- DOP (DOCG+DOC) grew +16.9%
- IGP grew in value +9.7% but fell in volume -6.3%
- Generic wine fell -11.7%
- Metodo Classico (mostly Franciacorta e Trento) grew +30.7%
- Charmat Secco (mostly Prosecco) soared +65.1%
- Charmat Dolce (mostly Asti) fell -20.6%
(last 5 years variation %, 2019 vs 2014)
With the pandemic wine sales kept increasing but the trend inverted, quality wines grew slower
- Total wine sales grew +12%
- DOP wines grew +9.7%
- IGP wines grew +15%
- Varietal and generic wines grew the most +15.8%
- Sparkling wine, for obvious reasons, fell -4.2%
(first lockdown: March-April 2020 vs March-April 2019)
After the first lockdown wine sales continued to grow further
Q3 2020
- Total wine: +6.1%
- Still wine: +2.7%
- Sparkling wine: +19.8% (probably due to the summer season and the pandemic recovery illusion)
Q4 2020
- Total wine: +5.9%
- Still wine: +9.2%
- Sparkling wine: -1.5% (probably due to the pandemic second wave hitting)
(Q3, Q4 2020 vs Q3, Q4 2019)
2020 “off-trade” wine sales breakdown by sales channels
- Hypermarket and large supermarket channel: +6.7%
- Discount supermarkets channel: +9.6%
- Off-trade e-commerce (including Amazon): +140.6%
- Cash&Carry: -6.1% (probably because they are also suppliers of some “on-trade” hardly hit by restrictions)
2020 “off-trade” wine sales breakdown by wine categories
- Almost all categories grew
- Quality wine (DOP and IGP) grew more than generic wines
- Prosecco grew the most +12.9%
- Asti is the only category to fell -15.3%
(2020 vs 2019)
2020 “off-trade” wine sales breakdown by average price
- Average prices of almost all categories grew around 1 and 2.5%
- Only generic wines and Prosecco prices slightly decreased by few decimals
(unit average price 2020 vs 2019)
Except the first lockdown, 2020 confirmed the “premiumisation” of wine consumption
- The “off-trade” average price grew to €3.48/l
- The percentage of quality wine (DOCG & DOC) on the total grew +54 %
- Sales of “organic” wine (2020 vs 2019) grew +18.6%
“Premiumisation” trend is also recorded in the USA market (largest wine market in the world)
- Price range $20.00-$24.99, the segment with the greatest growth, +31%
- Price range $25+, the segment with the second greatest growth, +25%
(2020 vs 2019)
Final remarks:
- Pandemic drove wine sales up, during the first lockdown reversing the trend and increasing sales of generic wines
- Overall, 2020 provided solid indications of the growth in wine sales and the “premiumization” trend
- Most probably the trend will continue, due to the extension of “smart-working” and the slow recovery of the “on-trade”
- Winemakers though will be challenged to find a sustainable balance among these aspects:
- the evident need for “multi-channel” distribution, therefore be also present on the shelves of the supermarkets
- the previous investments in building and maintaining a brand presence in the “on-trade” channel
- the entry fees and conditions to access the “off-trade” channel
- the awareness of the strength of the “off-trade” that allows them to lead the selection of wineries, not every brand is suitable, not only second labels will be accepted
- the pricing strategy needs to be fair to e-commerce, supermarkets and restaurants channels
Data source by Dennis Pantini © Nomisma Wine Monitor
Elaborated and commented, on March 30 2021 by Vito Donatiello